Artikel dari Malaysia Today.
Dimana letaknya orang Melayu?
It’s in the arithmetic, stupid
Posted by Super Admin
Tuesday, 02 September 2008 14:32
This is not just about kicking Barisan Nasional out. This is not just about forming a new Pakatan Rakyat federal government. This is also about maintaining the peace, stability and harmony between the many races and about denying Umno the opportunity to turn this whole thing into a race issue.THE CORRIDORS OF POWERRaja Petra Kamarudin
Soon after the 8 March 2008 general election, Malaysia Today mooted the possibility that Pakatan Rakyat could form the new federal government if at least 30 Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament crossed over. Another idea that Malaysia Today mooted was the formation of the ‘Unity Government’ and the eventual emergence of a two-party system in Malaysia.The two-party system was accepted with no problems but the crossovers and Unity Government proposals were whacked to kingdom come. Some even commented that I had ‘changed’ since the election and no longer speak the way I used to. They were beginning to wonder what had happened to me and whether I was suffering from ‘battle fatigue’ and should in fact take a long rest before continuing to write again.The ‘ailment’ I was suffering from was merely a case of realpolitik or pragmatism. Let’s face it: what can Pakatan Rakyat do with a mere 82 seats in Parliament? It does not even have enough clout to stop the federal government from sabotaging the five states under Pakatan Rakyat control. And this can be done easily enough by squeezing the five states of development money (like how they did to Terengganu in 1999) whereby, come the next election, these states will fall back into Barisan Nasional’s hands (like what happened to Terengganu in 2004).It’s all about money. If the states get squeezed of money, then the people will re-evaluate the logic of keeping these states under Pakatan Rakyat control. See what the 2009 Budget was all about. It was about pouring money into states like Sabah and Sarawak that may be the source of the crossovers. Umno knew that Sabah and Sarawak were the most possible targets of the crossovers. So they are promising billions to these two states just to ensure that they remain in Barisan Nasional.Barisan Nasional has 140 seats in Parliament against Pakatan Rakyat’s 82 -- which is 31 for PKR, 28 for DAP and 23 for PAS. But that is for the whole country. In Peninsular Malaysia, Pakatan Rakyat has 80 seats against Barisan Nasional’s 86. Yes, that’s right. In Peninsular Malaysia, Barisan Nasional has only six seats more than Pakatan Rakyat. If just three Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament from Peninsular Malaysia cross over, Pakatan Rakyat would have 83 seats against Barisan Nasional’s 83.The ‘main players’ in Barisan Nasional are Umno (79 seats), MCA (15 seats), MIC (3 seats) and Gerakan (2 seats). But 13 of Umno’s seats are in Sabah. Therefore, in Peninsular Malaysia, Umno has only 66 seats against MCA’s, MIC’s and Gerakan’s 20 (Total 86 for Barisan Nasional versus Pakatan Rakyat’s 80). Sabah and Sarawak are definitely the Kingmakers. And the fact that, by law, 25% of the Parliament seats must come from Sabah and Sarawak means they shall always be the Kingmakers. And this is even more so now since, in Peninsular Malaysia, Barisan Nasional’s and Pakatan Rakyat’s seats are almost split 50:50. In fact, in Peninsular Malaysia, Pakatan Rakyat garnered more votes than Barisan Nasional (51% versus 49%). Only when you add the votes from Sabah and Sarawak are the percentages reversed.The King of Kings would be PBB, Taib Mahmud’s party in Sarawak, which has 14 seats. This is followed by Umno in Sabah, which has 13 seats. SUPP and PRS, both in Sarawak, have six seats each. UPKO in Sabah and SPDP in Sarawak have four seats each -- followed by PBS in Sabah (3 seats), SAPP in Sabah (2 seats) and PBRS and LDP, both in Sabah, with one seat each.The bottom line is, there are 56 Parliament seats in Sabah and Sarawak. Umno controls 13 and the opposition (DAP) two. The balance 41 are controlled by the component members of Barisan Nasional East Malaysia. If you regard the 13 Umno Sabah seats as ‘component member’ seats, then the total ‘hostile’ seats in East Malaysia (within Barisan Nasional) would be 54. Add the 20 from MCA, MIC and Gerakan, then Pakatan Rakyat would now have 74 seats to fish from.And 30 seats are all Pakatan Rakyat needs. So 74 are plenty. And that is assuming the 66 Umno seats in Peninsular Malaysia remain with Barisan Nasional and do not cross over.But there would be a problem if none of the 79 Umno Members of Parliament cross over. Pakatan Rakyat has 43 Malay Members of Parliament opposed to 39 non-Malays. That is okay because then Umno can’t say that the non-Malays control the opposition. But if 30 non-Malay Members of Parliament cross over to Pakatan Rakyat, and they get to form the new federal government, then it would be 69 non-Malays opposed to only 43 Malays.Herein lies the problem and that is why there is a delay in Pakatan Rakyat forming the new federal government. Anwar Ibrahim does have his 30. In fact, it is more than 30. But Anwar has to be very careful in maintaining the ‘balance’. He can’t afford to form the new federal government with 69 or more non-Malay Members of Parliament and only 43 Malays. Umno would go to town with this and it will ‘prove’ what Umno has been saying these last many months: that the non-Malays have grabbed political power and the Malays have lost political power.Yes, this is the song Umno has been singing since the 8 March 2008 general election. Malay political power had eroded, argues Umno. And once the 30 or more non-Malay Members of Parliament cross over and Pakatan Rakyat forms the new federal government, the Malays will lose political power.In an Umno Johor Convention a couple of months ago, they spoke about how they regret giving citizenship to the immigrants on 31 August 1957. Now that these immigrants have been granted citizenship, they have demonstrated ingratitude by voting for the opposition. These immigrants should never have been given citizenship, argued speaker after speaker. And Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah were guests of honour in this Convention.You could see Tengku Razaleigh cringe, as if in great pain, on hearing this. He knew that Barisan Nasional suffered its most humiliating performance on 8 March 2008 because of exactly this. Such statements are not going to help. It will just make matters worse.Umno played the race card to the hilt in the run-up to the recent general election. And it is still doing so until now, as the Umno Bukit Bendera Division Chief has shown. They still refer to Malaysian-born Chinese and Indians as immigrants. They still call the Chinese and Indians ungrateful squatters. They still ask the Chinese and Indians to go back to China and India, though all these people were born in Malaysia and not in any other country.In a PPP Convention in Melaka, held before the 8 March 2008 general election, the Umno Vice-President and Chief Minister told the 1,000 or so Indians that Umno does not need the non-Malays. They do not even need Sabah and Sarawak, said Ali Rustam. Umno has ruled Malaysia for 50 years without the non-Malays, or the people from Sabah and Sarawak, and they can continue to do so another 50.Ali Rustam was not asked to apologise. Neither was the Umno Bukit Bendera Umno Chief, who Abdullah Badawi said did not really mean what he said. But if I were to say something like that, the police would be in front of my house the very next day and I would be hauled into court and charged for sedition within 24 hours. That would be how swift the police would act in the event I said even 10% of what the Umno leaders say.And this will be what will trigger the crossovers. The Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament will join Pakatan Rakyat to form the new federal government because of such talk. Umno has no respect for the non-Malays. Umno thinks all it needs to do is to bribe Sabah and Sarawak with more development funds and they will remain the loyal running dogs of Barisan Nasional. Umno knows that the Parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia are split almost 50:50. So all they need to do is to bribe Sabah and Sarawak and the 54 seats in East Malaysia will remain in Barisan Nasional and Umno will subsequently remain in power.Umno also knows that by just getting at least 30 Members of Parliament from Sabah and Sarawak, or even the 20 from MCA, MIC and Gerakan, to cross over is not enough. That would give Pakatan Rakyat a 43-Malay versus 69-non-Malay federal government. This will be exactly what Umno wants. Then they can play up the ‘Malays have lost political power’ race card. And then the May 13 Version 2 would become a reality.There are many impatient people. They want Anwar to take over and form the new federal government today. They want at least 30 Members of Parliament from Sabah and Sarawak to cross over now. They want Anwar to tell Umno to go to hell. But he can’t do that. He needs Umno. Well, at least he needs some of those from Umno. He needs at least 15 to 20 Umno Members of Parliament to join another 15 to 20 non-Malay Members of Parliament to cross over so that he can form the new federal government with the right racial balance. Then Umno can’t say that the Malays have lost political power. And Umno also can’t use this to fan the sentiments of the Malays and trigger another race riot the likes of what happened on 13 May 1969.This is not just about kicking Barisan Nasional out. This is not just about forming a new Pakatan Rakyat federal government. This is also about maintaining the peace, stability and harmony between the many races and about denying Umno the opportunity to turn this whole thing into a race issue.And Anwar, of all people, knows this. And that is why he is taking his time about it and is covering all the bases before making his move. We want Malaysia to move forward into 2009. We do not want to return to 1969. This is the crux of the matter.
...written by malsia1206, September 02, 2008 14:44:01
It's definitely a race issue. A squatters' issue. It's also religious-related issues. And corruption issues. But this Government pretends these issues never exist. Or if they do know they exist, they have no wish to address and tackle them. Pray what sort of a Government is that? Let the cancerous cells consume the whole body and await a painful death for the country and the whole rakyat?
It's definitely a race issue. A squatters' issue. It's also religious-related issues. And corruption issues. But this Government pretends these issues never exist. Or if they do know they exist, they have no wish to address and tackle them. Pray what sort of a Government is that? Let the cancerous cells consume the whole body and await a painful death for the country and the whole rakyat?
...written by Horizonline, September 02, 2008 14:46:33
Brilliant article Pete. PKR can never let those UMNO goons to play the racial cards on them. PKR need to be wise and not too hasty, I don't want the 1969 incident to happen again.
Brilliant article Pete. PKR can never let those UMNO goons to play the racial cards on them. PKR need to be wise and not too hasty, I don't want the 1969 incident to happen again.
...written by Susanna, September 02, 2008 14:46:36
Right on, spot on... exactly why we don't understand why MCA, Gerakan, and even Pairin Kitingan's party which of all parties understood the dirty games, played... should all the more take the chance now to work towards forming a new gomen rid of all those BN hang ups!
Right on, spot on... exactly why we don't understand why MCA, Gerakan, and even Pairin Kitingan's party which of all parties understood the dirty games, played... should all the more take the chance now to work towards forming a new gomen rid of all those BN hang ups!
...written by cubi76, September 02, 2008 14:50:31
This is the future we want... progressive, modern, peaceful, tolerant, cultural diversity.... for generations to come...
This is the future we want... progressive, modern, peaceful, tolerant, cultural diversity.... for generations to come...
...written by oknyua, September 02, 2008 14:53:28
Just thinking alound, RPK. Can Anwar take over and then dissolve parliament and call for fresh election? That would solve the "Malay-non Malay" issue as I think PKR would get more of the Malay MPs and support. Expensive, no doubt, but that's the only option left.
Just thinking alound, RPK. Can Anwar take over and then dissolve parliament and call for fresh election? That would solve the "Malay-non Malay" issue as I think PKR would get more of the Malay MPs and support. Expensive, no doubt, but that's the only option left.
...written by rayfire, September 02, 2008 14:54:09
I just hope the balance is maintained for the benefit of all Malaysians alike and the transition is done without major disruption to peace in the country. We want a definite change for better Malaysia for all and not just per se. IT has to be something lasting and committed to provide a better future for all Malaysians alike. No more race based politics the only race should be the Malaysian race! Racist exist in all races, and all of them must go! To hell with racist and racism!
I just hope the balance is maintained for the benefit of all Malaysians alike and the transition is done without major disruption to peace in the country. We want a definite change for better Malaysia for all and not just per se. IT has to be something lasting and committed to provide a better future for all Malaysians alike. No more race based politics the only race should be the Malaysian race! Racist exist in all races, and all of them must go! To hell with racist and racism!
...written by ilovepakatan, September 02, 2008 14:54:16
I am really mystified by UMNO's inability to compete with Pakatan Rakyat. I mean, all they need to do is reinvent themselves, abandon racial policy, try to unite all the component parties into one regardless of race, work in the interest of the people and they will not lose so badly. Are they really that dumb or we've been really so blind to believe those Goons who are no smarter than a 5th grader to be our leader for so long?
I am really mystified by UMNO's inability to compete with Pakatan Rakyat. I mean, all they need to do is reinvent themselves, abandon racial policy, try to unite all the component parties into one regardless of race, work in the interest of the people and they will not lose so badly. Are they really that dumb or we've been really so blind to believe those Goons who are no smarter than a 5th grader to be our leader for so long?
...written by CheGUvera, September 02, 2008 14:55:43
How sad that we are in 2008 and yet this race quota still prevail. So, if we have a huge majority of bright non-malay"sian" to bring the country forward, BUT a certain amount cannot use their brightness for the good of the country. How will we reach this 2020 with only less then 12 yrs left, maybe "he" meant 3020 just said it wrongly. There are so many bright stars among the non-malay"sian" not allowed to shine. In Sweden, a country with immigrants from all over the world, all are given the same school,same jobs opp. and many are involved in politics contributing to the goodness of the country. Is it so hard to follow them??
How sad that we are in 2008 and yet this race quota still prevail. So, if we have a huge majority of bright non-malay"sian" to bring the country forward, BUT a certain amount cannot use their brightness for the good of the country. How will we reach this 2020 with only less then 12 yrs left, maybe "he" meant 3020 just said it wrongly. There are so many bright stars among the non-malay"sian" not allowed to shine. In Sweden, a country with immigrants from all over the world, all are given the same school,same jobs opp. and many are involved in politics contributing to the goodness of the country. Is it so hard to follow them??
...written by Anti Jihadist, September 02, 2008 14:55:59
I don't care who's from what race in Parliament, as long as they are competent and not corrupt. I hope someday, most Malaysians can agree with that idea.
I don't care who's from what race in Parliament, as long as they are competent and not corrupt. I hope someday, most Malaysians can agree with that idea.
...written by islandjoe, September 02, 2008 14:57:31
I'd just like to thank BODOWI for helping us unite the races. I personally think it's a selfless act by this genious. Because of him, we are all united in HATING him and his BN morons. It's also because of BN that I support this person DSAI. See? He's no longer malay, chinese, indian, or whatever to me. He's a person!! Thank you Bodowi and co. for helping me through my apparent prejudices.
I'd just like to thank BODOWI for helping us unite the races. I personally think it's a selfless act by this genious. Because of him, we are all united in HATING him and his BN morons. It's also because of BN that I support this person DSAI. See? He's no longer malay, chinese, indian, or whatever to me. He's a person!! Thank you Bodowi and co. for helping me through my apparent prejudices.
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